Viral Aerosol Spread Simulation

Vance

Gyroplane CFI
Joined
Oct 30, 2003
Messages
16,103
Location
Nipomo,California
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Givens Predator
Total Flight Time
2400+ in rotorcraft
Over here we are told that simple non N95 masks only protect others, not yourselfe so if your state regulations do not require you to wear a mask and you are reasonably confident that you are not infected to might omit the mask for teaching. There are also regulations regarding speed of surrounding air (e.g. flow generated by air conditioning) which would allow you to do away with a mask, so if you can do your instruction outside you could also do away with a mask, unless it's a dead calm day.
It is seldom dead calm at KSMX.

In San Luis Obispo County where I live with a population of 283,111 there has been one death from COVID 19.

I have been tested and my wife was more recently tested and we are both negative.

We could not find a test for the antibodies.

Most of my clients come from more than 200 miles away.

We suspect we had COVID 19 earlier in the year.

At 70 I am in the high risk category and most of my clients are north of 50.

Flight instruction is considered part of the essential infrastructure in California.

I stopped instructing for six weeks and find I am much happier instructing regularly.

I don’t know how much longer I will be fit to fly and I am certain I will morn each day I missed instructing when I am grounded.

My first student after my shut down was a joy, learned quickly and had fun.

Life treats me well.
 

hillberg

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U S Surgeon General said "If you're not infected do not ware a mask" "It does not prevent you from contracting the disease"
 

Tyger

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Germantown, NY
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Magni M16
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I can recognize who the a--holes are by the fact that they are not wearing a mask, and I can steer clear of them.
This is the essence of prejudice...
There are going to be lots of people who already have immunity and are not going to be infecting anyone. But in your judgement, they are "a-holes" just prima facie, based on what they are wearing.
 

kolibri282

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Duesseldorf
Over here all wear masks to give a good example. The fact that currently the threat has been vastly reduced is the result of a common effort by all citizens and a government that has made every effort to unite the nation. That united effort is a common trait of all countries which have successfully turned the tide. Of course that virus has a field day in a country where the president goads people to protest against the measures, necessary to stop the virus from spreading, just because those were taken in states where his party is not ruling.
 
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hillberg

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Over here all wear masks to give a good example. The fact that currently the threat has been vastly reduced is the result of a common effort by all citizens and a government that has made every effort to unite the nation. That united effort is a common trait of all countries which have successfully turned the tide. Of course that virus has a field day in a country where the president goads people to protest against the measures, necessary to stop the virus from spreading, just because those were taken in states where his party is not ruling.
Enjoy your chains may they be polished and lite for your imprisonment in that new world order where liberty is dead as the society that demands conformity over free thought.
 

StanFoster

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Paxton, Il
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Vance...Good to hear you are doing well. I have strong opinions on this virus, but no need to anger people, as no amount of words will change their mind...doesn't matter which side of the debate you are on.

If the virus magically disappeared tomorrow, in my opinion we will never get back to where we were.

I am retired but building curved stairways for the challenge and pleasure of it. I find it sad that people cant wait to retire because they hate their job. Luckily I realized that in 1986 and started "making my own shadow."
Vance...I of course stole that phrase from you, and have used it many times. Thanks so much for that and the many times we had together. You are one of the most amazing deep thinking persons I have come across. Its blessed my life getting to know you.

Stan
 

loftus

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Ponce Inlet, Florida
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Aircam
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This is the essence of prejudice...
There are going to be lots of people who already have immunity and are not going to be infecting anyone. But in your judgement, they are "a-holes" just prima facie, based on what they are wearing.
At this point it's actually not certain if there is immunity from this virus, and less than 3% of the American population demonstrate antibodies to the virus at this time.
Frankly I just don't get the big deal about wearing a mask. I mean for gods sake, someone shot a store manager or clerk or something because they asked him to wear a mask. Where are peoples' sense of community and concern for others? Why are people just so mean? We're not talking about the 2nd amendment here. As pilots we fasten our seat belt, ask our passengers to do so, and comply when traveling commercially. We never consider this as infringing on our rights.
As a surgeon I wear a mask all day, every day in the operating room for over 40 years, and never considered it to be infringing on my rights, just good infection prevention practice. Hopefully if and when you ever have surgery or a medical procedure, your doctor will have the courtesy to do the same. Yesterday I had a patient wanting to punch out my receptionist and another patient due to an altercation about taking their temperature in the parking lot and requesting they wear a mask before coming in to the waiting area of my office, and we had to call the police. So that's the kind of A...hole I am talking about.
And I am not obsessed either that everyone wear a mask at all times when outside, simply think it's pretty reasonable to request that people wear a mask when in close proximity to others, as in stores etc, and particularly when other people who may be vulnerable, over 60 and medical problems, may be around. Sadly common courtesy is not so common any more.
 
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Brian Jackson

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Hamburg, New Jersey USA
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It's just good practice to wear a mask. Life is full of risks as it is. This is one we can control to some extent. I've already had 4 people in my circle infected. 2 of them died of Covid recently. I try to keep the rest protected and healthy by doing all the shopping, etc. I find it irresponsible of others when suddenly I'm surrounded by idiots at the checkout counter cramming themselves in line, some without masks. More than once I have left my items on the counter and walked out. It's futile to lecture to morons.
 

kolibri282

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Your freedom ends where the freedom of the others begins. If you think it's ok to use that freedom to infect others with a very dangerous disease that might kill them in several equally horrible ways you are lacking that minimum of common sense, caring and compassion required to be part of a modern, civilized society.
 

k413

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Jun 24, 2006
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Saint Charles MO
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None.
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I posted an article from American Thinker from a scientist/expert that contradicted the recommendations of the CDC. Did not expect this to go 6 pages deep. I am a baby boomer who has become very skeptical of "experts" and the thinking "science knows it all". We have doctors contradicting treatments, survival rates, mortality rates (die from Covid19 or with Covid 19). As usual politics come into play for those who believe President Trump is an idiot and those who believe he has done the best job of as President of anyone else. The two will never meet.

What I know is that 30 - 40 million people out of work or out of business forever is a catastrophe that is starting now and will grow worse. I have been, and I am sure people on this forum have been broke from layoffs or an economic crisis. They have had to work multiple jobs trying to make ends meet. Have had their lives, marriages, health, destroyed by economic crashes. Had to file bankruptcy and destroyed their credit, and on and on.

This was all based on "science" and "experts" and models that were over estimated by quite a bit and not letting a "good crisis got to waste".

There are doctors and scientists who say wear a mask and others wah say masks do not help. Social distancing is a must, others that they do not work. Recovery rate for the low risk group is 97 percent and others give all sorts of numbers in between.

Bottom line for me is how many people have to die, get addicted to alcohol and drugs, commit suicide, etc., before some states lift their crazy draconian lock downs. Wearing a mask is a pain, but sure, wear one as it makes people more comfortable. I do recommend a breath mint as I discovered how bad my breath was at times.

con•spir•a•cy. n., pl. -cies. 1. the act of conspiring. 2. a plan or agreement formulated, esp. in secret, by two or more persons to commit an unlawful, harmful, or treacherous act. 3. a group of persons for a secret, unlawful, or evil purpose.

The word is thrown around a great deal and usually ridiculed. Not much of a conspiracy person my self, but it bothers me that "blue" state's governments seem hell bent on destroying their states economy. It is easy to say we must have these measures that are destroying businesses and jobs, when governors, federal and state employees, actors and actresses will not be made destitute and continue to get paid. I do not know if the President Trump haters really hate him so much that they would destroy the economy just so he will not re re-elected, but it seems to be their goal.

Getting too long on this, so will part with the First Amendment.

The First Amendment (Amendment I) to the United States Constitution prevents Congress from making any law respecting an establishment of religion, prohibiting the free exercise of religion, or abridging the freedom of speech, the freedom of the press, the right to peaceably assemble, or to petition for a governmental redress of grievances.
 

Brian Jackson

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Hamburg, New Jersey USA
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I am a baby boomer who has become very skeptical of "experts" and the thinking "science knows it all".
Science is aware it does NOT know all, else there would be no need for it. Science by definition is a self-correcting methodology. It adjusts itself according to new data. This is how we learn things. It's hard to generalize a complex problem, for example the benefits of wearing a mask. When viewed from the perspective of protecting the wearer, it's not the best protection. But when viewed as a means of protecting others from yourself, there are measurable benefits. This isn't necessarily contradictory information.
 

k413

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Saint Charles MO
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None.
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About 40 hours - no license
Brian, you assume that scientists are all altruistic and do not have monetary interests, or preset paradigms. Scientists are human and just as susceptible to self interest, awards and pride that can cloud judgement. And who measures the benefits. How is the data collected. How is it distributed. We typically hear on new cases and new deaths, not recovery from infection, nor the fact increased testing is going to show more cases, but how many are actually are sick. Of course scientists have contradictory results, and viable results have been ignored in the past becasue they do not fit the paradigm. Doctors and scientists do not agree on the mask, it was just adopted because of the CDC, which has almost been playing GOD with people's lives. The CDC has issues also, one of which is many of the doctors and scientists have financial intersts in drug companies, one of which promoted Remdesiviras as a treatment for Covid19. There are enough doctors and care centers that are having success with Hydroxychlorquine and Zinc, but the CDC says no, the press says no, some pharmacies will not fill it for treaing Covid19.

And this shut down is still going to cause major financial issues, because scientists and doctors missed the mark, and many people are going to suffer because of it.
 

loftus

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Ponce Inlet, Florida
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Brian, you assume that scientists are all altruistic and do not have monetary interests, or preset paradigms. Scientists are human and just as susceptible to self interest, awards and pride that can cloud judgement. And who measures the benefits. How is the data collected. How is it distributed. We typically hear on new cases and new deaths, not recovery from infection, nor the fact increased testing is going to show more cases, but how many are actually are sick. Of course scientists have contradictory results, and viable results have been ignored in the past becasue they do not fit the paradigm. Doctors and scientists do not agree on the mask, it was just adopted because of the CDC, which has almost been playing GOD with people's lives. The CDC has issues also, one of which is many of the doctors and scientists have financial intersts in drug companies, one of which promoted Remdesiviras as a treatment for Covid19. There are enough doctors and care centers that are having success with Hydroxychlorquine and Zinc, but the CDC says no, the press says no, some pharmacies will not fill it for treaing Covid19.

And this shut down is still going to cause major financial issues, because scientists and doctors missed the mark, and many people are going to suffer because of it.
All the points you make about the frailties of scientists etc are true, the disagreements etc. But science is the best we have and the shortcomings of humans is actually the most important reason we must be rigid in science and question every scientific paper with an open mind. Good science presents an hypothesisi, rigidly tests it, then accepts the results whatever they may be. The best science, publishes in good journals and allows the peers to pick it apart to either validate or question the conclusions. Yes it's the nature of science to build on previous scientific shortcomings whether it's making a better medicine or building a better car. As to the HQN thing, let the science fall where it may, we are still in the middle of the scientific process. Avoid the politicians and pundits recommendations at this point. What we do know so far is that the original recommendations by the French Dr Raoult using HQN and Azithromycin is probably not helpful and may in fact be harmful, particularly in very sick patients. These are the results of much larger studies that have tried to reproduce his results and failed, and one has to concede that the non-altruistic aspects of human scientists may apply just as well to Dr. Raoult as anyone else. Generally larger studies will provide better statistical significance as to whether any conclusion is valid or not. So the larger studies with more and more patients seem to reinforce the same concern that we should be cautious, because we may not be helping someone and we could be hurting them if they are very sick with COVID and we give the HQN / Azithromycin combination. More and more hospitals are backing off. Having said that, ongoing more rigid double blind studies are ongoing and a recent study of HQN and Zinc (no Azithromycin) shows promise - and interestingly it may be the Zinc that is doing the heavy lifting, and HQN just helps it enter the cells. But this is a study only out of one hospital and not yet peer reviewed. So there are also still ongoing studies with HQN for prevention etc, and these are ongoing and it will take a few months yet before all the results are in. Unfortunately the original excitement has not quite panned out, but wait for the science to fall where it may. Physicians are still prescribing it but most with only anecdote or hope, not proof. Don't listen to the president, Pelosi or your favorite talk radio jock to tell you whether it works or not. Just a note of caution, in France, where HQN excitement was also high, the high death rates, higher than many other countries, persist. So no this is not science, but anecdote, and this time a cautionary one. HQN will not work or not work based on the fact that we want it to.
 
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hillberg

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Same CDC Dr. Fouci had great success with CHQ/Zink in 2015+- Now ? What changed. . . Politics.
We have Governors and Mayors putting covid patients into nursing homes
Economy shut down
Elections monkeyed with
Every healthy person locked down
Curatives blocked
Medical supplies warehoused
Hospital Ships nearly unused
science & medicine whored out to the highest bidder -
Censorship on the net & thought police on the rise
It's more then a stupid bug.
 

kolibri282

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Duesseldorf
Quote: And this shut down is still going to cause major financial issues, because scientists and doctors missed the mark, and many people are going to suffer because of it. /Quote
There is no doubt that the shut down causes immense suffering for many people. In the US this is compounded by the fact that you don't have any decent social security. In Germany companies don't have to lay off their staff because the government pays the wages of all employees who's company has to shut down. They currently get 80% of their wage if they are single and 87% if it is a family. But of course politicians face a grim choice: you either let the virus do it's thing and pile up the dead bodies in reefer trucks or you enforce social distancing and accept the economic damage. If states ruled by the Democrats seem to prefer saving lives this is a choice the voter may later on approve of or not, but this choice is definitely not taken lightly by any politician. But the economic damage is not entirely the choice of politicians. Sweden has opted to have no hard rules just recommendations and they pay with the second highest death rate per capita in any western country. Just have a look here: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ . Scroll down to the chart "New Deaths from COVID-19 per Day" and then below the chart from the "Data" drop down menu select "New Death 1. wk average". The point is that Sweden's economy is suffering as badly as any other in the world, since the global supply chains broke down after the shut down in China. About 70% of the Swedish victims were elderly people so, my take on it is: if, for some reason, you want to get rid of your parents and all the old stuff and restructure the pension scheme go the Swedish way. It's your choice.
 
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Vance

Gyroplane CFI
Joined
Oct 30, 2003
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Location
Nipomo,California
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Givens Predator
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2400+ in rotorcraft
Quote: And this shut down is still going to cause major financial issues, because scientists and doctors missed the mark, and many people are going to suffer because of it. /Quote
There is no doubt that the shut down causes immense suffering for many people. In the US this is compounded by the fact that you don't have any decent social security. In Germany companies don't have to lay off their staff because the government pays the wages of all employees who's company has to shut down. They currently get 80% of their wage if they are single and 87% if it is a family. But of course politicians face a grim choice: you either let the virus do it's thing and pile up the dead bodies in reefer trucks or you enforce social distancing and accept the economic damage. If states ruled by the Democrats seem to prefer saving lives this is a choice the voter may later on approve of or not, but this choice is definitely not taken lightly by any politician. But the economic damage is not entirely the choice of politicians. Sweden has opted to have no hard rules just recommendations and they pay with the second highest death rate per capita in any western country. Just have a look here: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ . Scroll down to the chart "New Deaths from COVID-19 per Day" and then below the chart from the "Data" drop down menu select "New Death 1. wk average". The point is that Sweden's economy is suffering as badly as any other in the world, since the global supply chains broke down after the shut down in China.
The government cannot give anything that they don’t take away first.

I prefer to have the government involved in my life as little as possible.

I have a nice middle class lifestyle in the USA and have not worked for 15 years.

I prefer to make decisions for myself.

This is not a political forum and to have someone from another country imagine they know what is best me is at best presumptuous.

Based on what little I know I would not want to live in Germany's political system.

We have had one death attributed to COVID 19 in San Luis Obispo County and we had a population of 283,111 in 1999.

I suspect the low death rate had nothing to do with our particularly confused governor in California or any of his inconsistent restrictions.

The same restrictions applied to Los Angles County and they have had 2,042 deaths as of 5/23 out of a population of 10,040,000 in 1999.

Please take your political bad manners somewhere else.
 

kolibri282

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Quote: Same CDC Dr. Fouci had great success with CHQ/Zink in 2015+- Now ? What changed. . . Politics /Quote.
Now ? What changed .... Uhmm.... the type of disease???
 

kolibri282

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Quote: I have a nice middle class lifestyle in the USA and have not worked for 15 years. I prefer to make decisions for myself. /Quote

My parents were so poor that we never had a single holiday together, my mum would lend the 2 Deutschmarks I had saved over time by the end of each month to buy us something to eat and return it to me adding a few "Pfennige" as interest. My dad had contracted every type of plague you can imagine as a soldier in WWII, he died when I was 14 years old. I learned how to use a sewing machine because my mum would work day in and out sewing things for the neighbours just to keep us afloat, it was her who made my success possible. Today I am amongst the 5% most well off people in this country but over here we think that it is our duty to support society in helping others to climb the social ladder. One thing that helped tremendously was that the Government would pay all the books I needed when I started higher education (Gymnasium). We just want to pass on what we were granted. Not every person had a dad who was one of the most acclaimed test pilots of his country.

Quote: Please take your political bad manners somewhere else. /Quote
Sorry, Vance, I am just trying to depict things as they are. Please elaborate on what you think is bad manners, otherwise I would think this is really, really bad style...;-(
 
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StanFoster

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Kolibri...A big reason your government has extra for social services is because your government doesn't have to supply the military needed to protect your fine people.
 
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