Viral Aerosol Spread Simulation

k413

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Weill, unless I can not read, the author says social distancing can make this virus more of a killer, and is not a good idea. But, I have misread things before.
 

Doug Riley

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Perspective tends to reduce panic. We've been here before. Epidemics were a regular feature of life in the bad ol' days, say in Shakespeare's time. Folks then had no choice but to "let it wash over them" -- a sanitized way of saying let everybody damn well get infected ASAP and die if they're going to. Darwin is one cruel S.O.B. to leave in charge.

The Black Plague in Europe in the 1300's was one of the very few times in human history that the world population curve actually turned quite noticeably DOWN. We're talking millions of deaths here. Maybe Europe eventually reached "herd immunity" as a result, after a third of the continent's residents died. Even if that generation did reach herd immunity, it didn't last. There were plague epidemics for centuries after that. Daniel Defoe (of Robinson Crusoe fame) wrote an account of one mid-1600's plague epidemic, A Journal of the Plague Year. It reads like news accounts from, say, four weeks ago. It's on the 'Net to read for free.

That "contrarian" article gets part of the polio story right and part wrong. (I live with a polio survivor; our place is well-stocked with books on the subject.) Polio, in its familiar paralytic form, did not just crop up as a mutation 100 years ago. It had bubbled under since ancient times. Polio is primarily a G.I. tract infection, acquired by mouth and settling in the small intestine. All along, though, it's been capable of slipping into the nervous system, which, to the virus, is a rich banquet. Kids most likely did immunize themselves by slopping about in the filth, but less so as sanitation improved. All along, however, a few were paralyzed or died. Oh well? Infant mortality was awful then anyway, from dozens of causes. Polio was probably lost in the noise.

It's true that "social distancing" and the like are not the ultimate solution to the current problem. They are house-afire tactics to avoid overloading the hospitals and morgues, by making the epidemic more gradual. Do we REALLY want death trucks roaming the cities, blasting "bring our your dead" over loudspeakers and hauling them off to pit graves? Really? That's how it used to be. Merely slowing things down has some merit.

But it gets better. Viruses are pieces/parts of cells; they're not fully living things. They don't live long outside of living cells. If the infected guy's cough mist floats off and evaporates, the viruses in that mist will dry out and fall apart. If you or I inhale the mist, OTOH, the viruses will live long and prosper. If enough of the infected peoples' coughs infect NOBODY else, the overall presence of the bug will be reduced. A whole lot of lives will be saved. That's not just a temporary slowdown, it's a reduction in total long-run impact, by a couple orders of magnitude.

Yes, social distancing has its downsides. It is not sustainable indefinitely, and it leaves a whole lot of people non-immune and hence available for future infections. In addition to making free-range viruses more rare and therefore killing fewer people, though, it does buy us time. Not just time for the ICU's and morgues to process the victims with more dignity, but time for the researchers to do their work.

There's a fortune to be made in COVID therapies. The drug makers have a huge $$ incentive to get on with it.

Much as I despise social distancing, masks and the rest, I'm not ready to turn the bugs loose and "hope" they mutate to a nicer form or that half the country gets the thing and we reach herd immunity among the survivors. That "nicer" flu mentioned in the article still kills tens of thousands in the U.S. in a strong flu year. Look up the CDC's flu stats if you don't believe it.
 

Resasi

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jm-urbani

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in fact people did not die from the spanish flu virus but from over infections following the viral infection, they could not be cured because at that time there were no Antibiotics
 

Doug Riley

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What exactly happened back in 1918 is subject to speculation. There were no samples left of the virus itself until it was reconstructed from exhumed victims and some stored tissue.

Viruses had not been seen yet (no electron microscopes) but the existence of an infectious agent too small to be caught in a filter had been theorized for a couple decades. However, some medical folk at the time thought the flu was bacterial.

Some modern researchers studying the 1918 pandemic believe that the overreaction of the patient's immune system in response to the virus was the killer. This overreaction is sometimes called an "immune storm." If so, that would explain why younger patients actually did worse in that pandemic than others (they had the hottest immune responses).

The same thing may be causing complications among younger victims this time 'round. We don't have a huge epidemic here in Vermont, with just over 50 deaths. It's personal for me, though, as I lost a 39-year old client who had a wife, a business and two small kids. Big, lovable diner chef who made a mean tuna melt. He'd had a checkup shortly before he came down with this thing, and had no pre-existing conditions.
 

EI-GYRO

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It would appear that when the infection is not fought off fairly quickly, the immune system goes into overdrive, and does more damage than good.
I had an immune system misfire a couple of years ago, following a prolonged viral infection. Called Guillain-Barre Syndrome, it attacks the myelin sheath around the nerves. Would have killed me except for a clever neurologist realised it early enough. Immunoglobulin transfusion fixed it.
So I think I'll pay attention to the scientists and medics, rather than conspiracy theorists, thanks.
 

hillberg

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Hydroxychloroquine - Azithromycin- Zink sulfide [Very scientific very Medical off label & cheep]

2000 in NJ test, 30 cases in Ohio test 80 in Texas Nursing home 89% success -Tested in France, China etc. Multiple off label uses with same results
Your same scientific experts on the news like Greta Thornburg & Al Gore...

70% males are usually infected... Most have little to no symptoms, A Bill Gates WHO designer bug patent issued to the Perbrite Institute.
Congress outlawed viral research on Obamas watch and 3.7 million was sent to a Lab in Wuhan through WHO.
[Virus samples were recovered from Harvard Professor x2 charged with espionage]
follow the $$$$
Clinton Foundation
Gates Foundation
George Soros
WHO
NIH
Wuhan Lab
Note:
SARS covid 11 (70% same genome) as Covid - 19 was treated with above drugs 90% success in 2005 with WHO NIH [Dr.Fouci] support.
The only thing different is the political climate [Orange man bad]
 
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barongan

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Perspective tends to reduce panic. We've been here before. Epidemics were a regular feature of life in the bad ol' days, say in Shakespeare's time. Folks then had no choice but to "let it wash over them" -- a sanitized way of saying let everybody damn well get infected ASAP and die if they're going to. Darwin is one cruel S.O.B. to leave in charge.

The Black Plague in Europe in the 1300's was one of the very few times in human history that the world population curve actually turned quite noticeably DOWN. We're talking millions of deaths here. Maybe Europe eventually reached "herd immunity" as a result, after a third of the continent's residents died. Even if that generation did reach herd immunity, it didn't last. There were plague epidemics for centuries after that. Daniel Defoe (of Robinson Crusoe fame) wrote an account of one mid-1600's plague epidemic, A Journal of the Plague Year. It reads like news accounts from, say, four weeks ago. It's on the 'Net to read for free.

That "contrarian" article gets part of the polio story right and part wrong. (I live with a polio survivor; our place is well-stocked with books on the subject.) Polio, in its familiar paralytic form, did not just crop up as a mutation 100 years ago. It had bubbled under since ancient times. Polio is primarily a G.I. tract infection, acquired by mouth and settling in the small intestine. All along, though, it's been capable of slipping into the nervous system, which, to the virus, is a rich banquet. Kids most likely did immunize themselves by slopping about in the filth, but less so as sanitation improved. All along, however, a few were paralyzed or died. Oh well? Infant mortality was awful then anyway, from dozens of causes. Polio was probably lost in the noise.

It's true that "social distancing" and the like are not the ultimate solution to the current problem. They are house-afire tactics to avoid overloading the hospitals and morgues, by making the epidemic more gradual. Do we REALLY want death trucks roaming the cities, blasting "bring our your dead" over loudspeakers and hauling them off to pit graves? Really? That's how it used to be. Merely slowing things down has some merit.

But it gets better. Viruses are pieces/parts of cells; they're not fully living things. They don't live long outside of living cells. If the infected guy's cough mist floats off and evaporates, the viruses in that mist will dry out and fall apart. If you or I inhale the mist, OTOH, the viruses will live long and prosper. If enough of the infected peoples' coughs infect NOBODY else, the overall presence of the bug will be reduced. A whole lot of lives will be saved. That's not just a temporary slowdown, it's a reduction in total long-run impact, by a couple orders of magnitude.

Yes, social distancing has its downsides. It is not sustainable indefinitely, and it leaves a whole lot of people non-immune and hence available for future infections. In addition to making free-range viruses more rare and therefore killing fewer people, though, it does buy us time. Not just time for the ICU's and morgues to process the victims with more dignity, but time for the researchers to do their work.

There's a fortune to be made in COVID therapies. The drug makers have a huge $$ incentive to get on with it.

Much as I despise social distancing, masks and the rest, I'm not ready to turn the bugs loose and "hope" they mutate to a nicer form or that half the country gets the thing and we reach herd immunity among the survivors. That "nicer" flu mentioned in the article still kills tens of thousands in the U.S. in a strong flu year. Look up the CDC's flu stats if you don't believe it.
nice opinion
 

Resasi

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Hydroxychloroquine - Azithromycin- Zink sulfide [Very scientific very Medical off label & cheep]

But the search goes on. There do seem to be very promising anti viral solutions that seem quite close to significant breakthroughs.
 

WaspAir

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Here's the original peer-reviewed report in the New England Journal of Medicine, showing no benefit from the drug:


SARS covid 11 (70% same genome) as Covid - 19 was treated with above drugs 90% success in 2005 with WHO NIH [Dr.Fouci] support.
For perspective on what it means to have "70% same genome", check this out:

 
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hillberg

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But the search goes on. There do seem to be very promising anti viral solutions that seem quite close to significant breakthroughs.
then why was it successfully used on the SARS cov 11 out break in 2005? By the same CDC '
(VA in the US did the same 'test' omitting the other drugs it didn't do so well)
China, Russia and other odd sites across America have used this mix with 98% results'
Oh that's right Trump must be removed at any costs. This pandemic is all political with deadly Friendly Fire.
read the Pirbrite patent and see the bug inside & out.
 
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