Risk and Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM)

[TyroGyro]

I attach the relevant section from the latest version of the UK CAA "Skyway Code".

As I firmly believe that the vast majority of fatal gyro accidents are caused by poor ADM I think the gyro world would be a lot safer if more attention was paid to such things...

Fly Safe

 

[TyroGyro]

Here is a similar, more in-depth, document from the FAA

https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/phak/media/04_phak_ch2.pdf

Mods, since poor ADM is the overwhelming contributor to lost gyro pilots, could we possibly make this thread a "Sticky", at least on this Pilot Technique / Accident Discussion sub-forum?

 

[Brian Jackson]

Printed for study. Thank you!

 

[Mayfield]

Thank you Rod.

 

[TyroGyro]

There are of course some ADM errors that are quite specific to gyros.

wire-strikes [the single-biggest killer of gyro pilots, about 20% of all fatals]
insecure helmet or cargo [maybe 3% of fatals]

And it seems, in some places at least, gyros attract the downright reckless and the lawless. [no licence at all or minimal training; gyros are "safe" so... "watch this...!", etc., etc.]

 

[Aerofoam]

Wow, wire strikes! I would have thought PPOs would be first.....
I guess that puts it into a bit of perspective....

 

[WaspAir]

Wow, wire strikes! I would have thought PPOs would be first.....

Until relatively recently, it probably was.

 

[TyroGyro]

Wow, wire strikes! I would have thought PPOs would be first.....
I guess that puts it into a bit of perspective....

My analysis is confined to the factory-built "Eurotub" types, with H-stab.

I cannot speak for the homebuilt market, and historically, of course, PIO/PPO was indeed the classic "coffin corner" for gyros.

Autogyro Safety

www.tervis.fidisk.fi

 

[DavePA11]

Always see older used gyro projects for sale, and wonder why anyone would buy them given the history of risk of PIO/PPO.

 

[TyroGyro]

Nifty video summarising most of the ADM points, from a FW instructor.

The very important Personal Minimums Checklist is attached below.

 

[TyroGyro]

Similar short video

 

[TyroGyro]

Remember the old aviation saying, which IIRC goes something like this:-

"70% of dead pilots were dead before they left the ground. They just didn't know it..."​

Alternatively:-

"If there's ANY doubt, there's NO doubt. You DON'T go..." [IAPGT]​

 

[WaspAir]

I've never liked the "PAVE" scheme suggested by the FAA (in the minimums attachment above) as I find it unnatural. At our glider club we teach what we call the 5 As instead. They start at home before you leave for the airport, and only if you pass the early ones do you need to consider the others as you get closer to flight:

Airman ( IMSAFE, currency, etc.)
Atmosphere (METAR, AWOS, forecast)
Airspace (any TFRs, etc.)
Airport (NOTAMs and such)
Aircraft (preflight, fuel, etc)

 

[Tyger]

Remember the old aviation saying, which IIRC goes something like this:-

"70% of dead pilots were dead before they left the ground. They just didn't know it..."​

Alternatively:-

"If there's ANY doubt, there's NO doubt. You DON'T go..." [IAPGT]​

I'm afraid I find these a bit too facile... 70%, really? What is that number based upon? I suspect someone just made it up.
Lots of people have "doubts" about flying, just in general, so they never take it up, or refuse even to be a passenger. Are they being unreasonable? Aren't they just following that second aphorism?
One could as easily say, "99% of dead pilots are dead because they left the ground". I can believe that one. But what does it prove?

 

[DavePA11]

Flying backcountry there is always some doubt, but have to adjust your plans accordingly during the trip or even in flight since weather doesn’t always match what is forecasted and other things happen after takeoff.Hate flying tired when camping during backcountry trips. Always sleep better when I bring my 45. Worry less about pesky animals.

Good posts. Thanks for sharing the ADM video and minimums list. Pilots won’t use those acronyms during emergency. Loss of situational awareness or simply being distracted is a good one.

 

[Tyger]

"The human mind is a pattern-seeking device," says psychologist Daniel Kahneman.
And the patterns that the mind seeks, he adds, may swing in two opposing directions, almost as mirror images of each other.

On the one hand, says Kahneman, people have a great tendency to overestimate their own skills, whether that means their driving ability, sense of humor, or even talents as an investor trying to beat the market. Such undue optimism — by applying overly favorable odds to events over which we have little or no control — leads to what he terms "bold forecasts."

The flip side, Kahneman has discovered, is that people also go through what he labels overwhelming "loss aversion" when confronted with a decision that has been framed in a particular light. They would rather err on the side of unreasonable caution, he posits, than cope with a possible loss. They may ignore the big picture, and the result is a timid decision that can lead to mistakes just as surely as optimism can.

Risk Taking: A Tale of Two Biases - Daniel Kahneman - Leatherbee Lecture

3/21/2000 Princeton psychology professor Daniel Kahneman's research into risk has shown that the choices we make are influenced by two powerful, poorly understood and seemingly contradictory biases. In the annual Leatherbee Lecture at HBS, Kahneman explained his work and its implications for...

hbswk.hbs.edu

 

[TyroGyro]

I'm afraid I find these a bit too facile... 70%, really? What is that number based upon? I suspect someone just made it up.
Lots of people have "doubts" about flying, just in general, so they never take it up, or refuse even to be a passenger. Are they being unreasonable? Aren't they just following that second aphorism?
One could as easily say, "99% of dead pilots are dead because they left the ground". I can believe that one. But what does it prove?

I suppose it means that, in retrospect, it is judged that such dead pilots could have lived to fly another day, had they assiduously applied the IMSAFE/PAVE, etc checklists [had they been aware of them]. Most authorities state that about 70-80% of GA fatals are due to human factors, and emphasising ADM is intended to address this.

Gyros are no different, in principle, except the modes of death may be different to FW; wire strikes, disproportionate attraction of the reckless and the lawless, who feature prominently in the death lists, etc.

The IAPGT quote is, I believe, aimed at the newly-qualified and low hours in particular, with reference to ADM checklists and Personal Minimums...

 

[Tyger]

I guess my biggest issue is with the notion that, even if one accepts that 70+% of aviation deaths are from "human factors" (which I suppose encompasses anything not purely mechanical) that it was inevitable that they should die once they left the ground. This strikes me as pure hindsight, and very faulty reasoning.

 

[WaspAir]

Thanks for sharing the ADM video and minimums list. Pilots won’t use those acronyms during emergency.

Most of the acronyms are for preflight use to prevent having an emergency, not to be employed during one.

 

[TyroGyro]

Another good summary from AOPA Air Safety Foundation.

"Why should you care about decision making? The numbers speak for themselves. Poor decision making is the root cause of many—if not most—aviation accidents. Year after year, the NTSB attributes approximately 75 percent of all aircraft accidents to pilot error, with a very large number the direct result of poor decisions."​

​

"...read a few reports, looking for points at which the accident chain could have been broken. In most cases, the number of missed opportunities is disturbing."​

http://www.spilve.lv/library/human/Decision%20Making%20for%20Pilots.pdf