Predicting Accident Rates From General Aviation Pilot Total Flight Hours

TyroGyro

Junior Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2016
Messages
79
Location
Liverpool, UK
Aircraft
MTO Sport
Total Flight Time
61
report: DOT/FAA/AM-15/3
author: William R. Knecht, Civil Aerospace Medical Institute
title: Predicting Accident Rates From General Aviation Pilot Total Flight Hours
year: 2015
publisher: FAA
keywords: General Aviation / Accidents / Accident Rates / Flight Hours / Modeling / Predicting
comment: debunks Craig's "Killing Zone" theory of 50-350 hours, as being based on faulty math, and suggests that elevated risk may extend far further than previously thought, to 2000 hours or beyond. Math-intensive paper, although the Introduction and Discussion should be accessible to the general reader.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/research/med_humanfacs/oamtechreports/2010s/media/201503.pdf
 
Last edited:

kolibri282

Active Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2009
Messages
2,822
Location
Duesseldorf
Very interesting, Rod. The report shows that it can be very misleading to simply trust numbers and that it can be very difficult to make numbers meaningful.

Thanks for posting!
 

ckurz7000

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2006
Messages
3,438
Location
Vienna
Aircraft
ArrowCopter
Hmm, the paper does well in pointing out that the declining numbers of high hour pilots needs to be taken into consideration when drawing conclusions about accident probabilities. However, I think the author is simply trying to squeeze out a conclusion where the data simply do not permit one. The choice of fitting function for accident rates is a fancy way of eyeballing and not any more justified than that. Although I believe that the conclusion is a valid one, namely that accident rates fall off much later with flight hours then prviously believed, I would say tha the math used to derive this rather evident conclusion is bloated and overborn.

--Chris.
 
Top