God Bless all affected by Florence

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kolibri282;n1140248 said:
I understand that the report below had been prepared before all the disasters mentioned in this thread took place. Warnings have been issued aplenty, so those who have eyes to see can take action. Those who prefer to bury their heads deep in the sand wont. Unfortunately all will pay the price that comes with climate change.

Some are getting way too preachy here...
Perhaps you are on the wrong forum. This one is for ... Rotorcraft.
 

kolibri282

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Al Gore doesn’t approve of this:
The article is interesting, Chuck, but I think the whole question is way to complicated to come to a definite conclusion as someone who is not directly involved in that kind of research. The situation is a bit like boarding a plane. You have some idea how it flies but you'd probably not be able to get a Boeing 777 from New York to LA, you rely on someone trained for the job to do it. With scientific questions of that complexity you can get a basic idea but for the ultimate conclusion you have to rely on the experts too. The vast majority of scientists today call for action against climate change, despite some disagreement in minor areas. But then, was it Bertrand Russel who said: "The acolytes of a wrong belief can usually not be convinced, they simply die out." Only that this time it might be too late if we wait for that to happen.
 

C. Beaty

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“"Richard S. Lindzen was Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology until his retirement in 2013. He is the author of over 200 papers on meteorology and climatology and is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences and of the Academic Advisory Council of GWPF.”
Here’s what he says about global warming:"

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/...-two-cultures/

My opinions as to whether global temperature variations are natural phenomena or are man made are about as worthless as those of Al Gore and his Hollywood groupies.
 

Jean Claude

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To take the plane and cross the Atlantic I rely primarily on past successes rates of the carriers. What past successes can we attribute to previsions IPCC?
What did their models give over the cooling period from 1940 to 1975?
 

kolibri282

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I am really disappointed by this article, Chuck. There's science galore with all that talk about energy balance and radiation intensities from different strata of the atmosphere but this all seems to be used to baffle the general public, because when it comes to those things that everybody serving hot dogs in a diner can see with theire very eyes, like
.... disappearing Arctic ice, the rising sea level, the weather extremes, starving polar bears....
he arbitrarily throws in
, the Syrian Civil War
which of course no one has ever claimed to be a consequence of climate change and with that simple trick he thinks he's getting away from explaining those phenomena like melting arctic ice and glaciers vanishing at an alarming rate as well as sea level rise. This is so cheap that it leaves me a bit speechless a "scientist" could really argue that way. But there's hope, Joanna. If those claiming to be the enlightened who free mankind from the fear of climate change all try to confuse simple folks by throwing around formulae and making that kind of "scientific" hullabaloo, only to avoid an answer as to the why and how of climate impact that everybody, from a burger flipping "Mc" employee to the average trash collector, can see just by looking at satellite pictures of ocean ice and glaciers over the last fifty or so years, the number of people who feel it's time to act will grow and it won't be just those who have lost their homes, or worse relatives, in recent disasters.
 

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Jean Claude;n1140271 said:
To take the plane and cross the Atlantic I rely primarily on past successes rates of the carriers. What past successes can we attribute to previsions IPCC?
What did their models give over the cooling period from 1940 to 1975?
The IPCC didn't exist until 1988, with no assessments until 1990, and of course there were no computer models in 1940 for predictions.
Are you asking if they calibrate their current models using historical data?
 

Jean Claude

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WaspAir;n1140278 said:
Are you asking if they calibrate their current models using historical data?
IPCC models to predict warming only require entering the initial temperature and CO 2 conditions, then add anthropogenic CO2 flow. So, what do the results of their models give by entering these datas from 1940? Do they show the observed cooling during the first thirty years?

kolibri282 said:
...to avoid an answer as to the why and how of climate impact that everybody, from a burger flipping "Mc" employee to the average trash collector, can see just by looking at satellite pictures of ocean ice and glaciers over the last fifty or so years...
Once again, Juergen, You forget that the question is not about climate change, but about anthropogenic causes. The systematic omission of this word in the disasters movies is intentionally intended to deceive the public.
 

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It is ultimately not relevant whether the word anthropogenic is used in the films, Jean-Claude. As I have outlined in another thread the consequences of climate change are potentially so devastating that you are morally obliged to avoid everything humanly possible to not contribute to global warming. Only if you could proof positive that human action does NOT IN ANY WAY CONTRIBUTE to global warming could you just carry on. Since that proof has not been given we are all called for to save the planet. Keep in mind that in this years disasters alone several hundred men women and children have perished.
The situation is similar to the one where you have a child that suffers from terrible coughing fits. The doctor tells you:"I am not sure, but I think the fact that his parents smoke contributes to the bad health of your child". After you told your wife she immediately decides to quit smoking. Would you then tell her:"You known, Honey, the doctor wasn't sure so I will just go on smoking, let's wait and see whether or not the little rascal dies."

En fin de compte, il est insignifiant si le mot anthropogène soit utilisé dans les films, Jean-Claude. Comme je l'ai souligné dans un autre fil, les conséquences du changement climatique sont potentiellement tellement dévastatrices que vous êtes moralement obligé d'éviter tout ce qui est humainement possible pour ne pas contribuer au réchauffement planétaire. Si vous pouviez prouver que l'action humaine ne contribue EN AUCUN CAS au réchauffement climatique, vous pouvez continuer. Comme cette preuve n’a pas été donnée, nous sommes tous appelés à sauver la planète. N'oubliez pas que si on tiens en compte seulment les catastrophes de cette année, plusieurs centaines d'hommes, de femmes et d'enfants ont péri.
La situation est similaire à celle où vous avez un enfant qui souffre de terribles quintes de toux. Le médecin vous dit: "Je ne suis pas sûr, mais je pense que le fait que ses parents fument contribue à la mauvaise santé de votre enfant". Après avoir informé votre femme, elle décide immédiatement de cesser de fumer. Voulez-vous alors lui dire: "Tu sais, Chérie, le médecin n'était pas sûr, alors je vais continuer à fumer, attendons de voir si ou non le petit coquin meurt."
 

C. Beaty

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That’s what our ancestors said 400 years ago: “They say they’re not witches but why take the chance, let’s burn them anyhow.”

It is modern witchcraft if we believe computer models that are as flawed as JC says.

The end of our Universe will occur when the Sun has consumed all of its nuclear fuel and everything has reached equilibrium temperature of slightly above absolute zero. But that's so far in the future that I'm not going to worry about it.
 

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a) My example is not about burning someone but about saving someone, that makes a difference, doesn't it?
b) And yes, global warming is not about the end of the world, just the death of a few billion people, especially in poor countries, but the US is not spared, because you can deny the existence of global warming as much as you want, it will still hit you as recent fires have shown and rising sea levels will drive many Americans out of their homes just as in some rathole countries (was that the term that was used?).
c) Calling for action is not so much based on any model but on simple common sense. If you have no idea what damage you might do it's better do be cautious, isn't it?
 

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If you think that anti-CO2 governments are sincere, why are they pushing for the electrification of vehicles? This does not reduce the CO2 release by one iota. It just moves to the electrical factory.
And it's also true with replacement by "clean" hydrogen engines... Except the hydrogen production plant
 

kolibri282

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This does not reduce the CO2 release by one iota
In Germany even today energy from renewable sources is at times so abundant that the power plants would be glad could they store it in car batteries. Germany is working on a system linking power production and storage where both are highly distributed systems. Technically all problems are solved. You could even include solar power plants from the Sahara in the European grid. My company, Siemens, has connected New Zealand and Australia by a High Voltage Direct Current Link that feeds excess power from NZ to the Aussies with extremely low transmission losses. As I said, all technical means are available, it's a purely political decision whether we want to keep the Earth habitable....and as they say: there is no planet B
 

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Jean Claude;n1140322 said:
If you think that anti-CO2 governments are sincere, why are they pushing for the electrification of vehicles? This does not reduce the CO2 release by one iota. It just moves to the electrical factory.
And it's also true with replacement by "clean" hydrogen engines... Except the hydrogen production plant
Some vehicles should be electrified, JC: electric forklifts used in poorly ventilated areas, electric golf carts, electric wheel chairs and of course, Parisian scooters.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46349747/the-electric-scooter-scheme-taking-over-paris

However, electric automobiles have become a rat hole for taxpayer money and have made some “entreprenuers” very wealthy.
 

Jean Claude

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Juergen
I already see a future IPCC alert us that your long electric transmissions affectes the magnetic field protecting the Life from cosmic ray. Earth's dynamo is self excitating and this light anthropogenic currents have everything upset. The changes of the magnetic declination already are visible with a simple orientation compass. A new energetic transition is imperious !
 

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I am sure many members find this all absolutely fascinating, but why is it in the forum "General Discussion – Anything related to Rotorcraft"? Isn't this thread a poster child for "Off Topic"?
 

kolibri282

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Juergen
I already see a future IPCC alert us that your long electric transmissions affectes the magnetic field protecting the Life from cosmic ray. Earth's dynamo is self excitating and this light anthropogenic currents have everything upset. The changes of the magnetic declination already are visible with a simple orientation compass. A new energetic transition is imperious !
On the 11.11 at 11:11 o'clock the new Carnival season (which in German is called "Die fünfte Jahreszeit", = the fith season) has started here in Germany and your funny lecture would fit perfectly as a speech from the "Bütt" * in any beer tent.... great stuff, J-C!!!

Video from "Hoppeditz erwache" in Düsseldorf, where I live:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNCAXQhhamA

A somewhat longer video showing "Jecke" marching towards the town hall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPUQT6J1h1I
( you should at least wait until about 1:00 minute, where the pretty girls come into view..,-)


*Bütt is a large barrel cut in half from which you deliver such speeches.

In that context I might relate this thread to Rotorcraft by pointing out that rising sea levels will enlarge the area where you can operate amphibious autogyros.....;-)


, but why is it in the forum "General Discussion – Anything related to Rotorcraft"?
PS: This is a question that probably goes to the one who opened this thread in "General Discussion"....
 

WaspAir

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C. Beaty;n1140324 said:
Some vehicles should be electrified, JC: electric forklifts used in poorly ventilated areas, electric golf carts, electric wheel chairs and of course, Parisian scooters.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46349747/the-electric-scooter-scheme-taking-over-paris

However, electric automobiles have become a rat hole for taxpayer money and have made some “entreprenuers” very wealthy.
You really should drive one of the modern all-electrics before passing judgment.
In just my own circle of friends at the local indoor rock climbing gym, there are owners of an Audi A3-etron, a BMW I3, a Chevy Spark, a Nissan Leaf, a Fiat 500e, and a couple of Tesla 3s. The owners love them because they are quiet and reliable, need minimal maintenance, offer really good acceleration (electric motors are very torquey at low speed), and are cheap to operate. Many silicon valley employers have covered employee parking with solar panels, and let you charge for free while at work.
Any time wind or solar is used as part of the power to charge them, there is a true benefit, not just a shift of pollution to a power plant, and renewables are catching on fast around here. An internal combustion engine can't make use of those sources. Even if you shift pollutant generation to a power plant, there is still a substantial opportunity for improvement. Scrubbing output with big heavy effective gear at one fixed location and distributing the power through the grid can be a much better overall deal than many thousands of little and less effective smog control units adding weight to be hauled around in all those individual cars.
 
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