TyroGyro
Junior Member
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2016
- Messages
- 567
- Location
- Liverpool, UK
- Aircraft
- MTOsport G-IROD
- Total Flight Time
- 150
I would not draw anything from small numbers, Phil. Accidents happen randomly, and focusing on a small subset has next-to-no statistical power.
e.g. I launch my new gyro brand, and the first 9 fly happily. Woohoo! 100% safety record. Then the tenth one crashes. A wholly unacceptable fatal rate of 10%.... Obviously, neither figure is/was the truth. We must wait till 100 machines, or a thousand, to get closer to the truth...
Only the big picture can tell us anything, and even then we must be cautious, because rates can change over time, and different countries have vastly different environments, regulatory, and even cultural.
Do France and Spain have a high accident rate because they are flying a lot of ELAs? (which seem to have a bad accident rate)
or
Do ELAs have a bad accident rate because lots of them are flying in France and Spain? (and none in the UK)
e.g. I launch my new gyro brand, and the first 9 fly happily. Woohoo! 100% safety record. Then the tenth one crashes. A wholly unacceptable fatal rate of 10%.... Obviously, neither figure is/was the truth. We must wait till 100 machines, or a thousand, to get closer to the truth...
Only the big picture can tell us anything, and even then we must be cautious, because rates can change over time, and different countries have vastly different environments, regulatory, and even cultural.
Do France and Spain have a high accident rate because they are flying a lot of ELAs? (which seem to have a bad accident rate)
or
Do ELAs have a bad accident rate because lots of them are flying in France and Spain? (and none in the UK)
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