Jazzenjohn;n1143617 said:
<There are many ways the end cap and balance rod could have been lost that are not the primary reason for the accident but only one way the main plates have failed which has not yet been determined.>
<The balance rod and end cap could have been ejected due to impact, vs. in the air.>
I see this as a very nearly zero probability. A claim like this should include some reasonable scenario or evidence to even propose it as a possibility. If there were a catastophically damaged blade and the weight came out of the shattered blade, then it would be likely. I haven't seen any pics from the first accident, but the second shows what can only be a slung weight. Ejection out the end cap is almost impossible to do other than through the rotating forces of the spinning blade.
The possibility is just simply the rod and end cap is missing and no-one knows when it occurred. When it comes to life and death you do not need any more evidence than that to issue a warning that it is missing and that it being slung from the blade might be a reason why. How could you not warn if that is what you have found, even if you think that it is unlikely scenario.
There are many reasons for the missing end cap and rod, here just some:
The missing rod was only found after the wreckage was released back to the owners and it seems to me that it was discovered when the blade had already been cut, which is not ideal.
The end cap could have been damaged during retrieval, moving them around from shed to shed etc. It wasn't the NTSB it was a couple of local coppers and tow truck operator that did the retrieval.
The blade tip could have impacted the ground first, knocking the cap off then the rod fell out when being retrieved.
The blade tip could have impacted the gyro and knocked the end cap off without serious damage to the blade itself.
The violent flapping after the rotor separating in flight might resulted in in end cap failure and slinging of rod.
Also the logic doesn't quite work either, if one blade is grossly imbalanced compared to the other as suggested then there would be likely a lot of damage to the blade and hub bar as it rips itself apart. It did after all manage to rip the mast off which suggests to me a very violent event but the blades seem OK. It would make more sense if the rotor is mostly intact for it to have separated quickly and fluttered away.
The metallurgical testing is the best chance to work out what when wrong. If they don't find any evidence of fatigue or stress cracking and conclude that it was an near instantaneous separation then the blade imbalance theory has more weight if not then it is most likely the mast plates.
Not sure why people need to have a conclusion without first having the critical information at hand.